I'd like to share this wonderful quip by philosopher Robert Long, that was quoted in the (also insightful and actually pretty good) book A Richer Life by Philip Roscoe: Let's say that in early 2001 I formulate a theory to the effect that there is a Constant Tolkienian Force in the Universe that produces a Tolkien film... Continue Reading →
What you do determines what you see
Author's note: This post was originally titled "Déformation Professionnelle", but I had trouble understanding it myself and have renamed it for easier future reference! This post in three words: Profession -> Perception -> Truth The following text is taken from the excellent book The Art of Thinking Clearly, by Rolf Dobelli. A man takes out... Continue Reading →
Business Experimentation
Imagine for a moment that you want to implement a new sales initiative that you think will transform your business. The problem is, you're not too sure if it'd work. You decide, prudently, that maybe a pilot test would be good: let's roll out the initiative to just a small subset of the company, the... Continue Reading →
Forecasts are not predictions
If you have a prediction and it turns out to be wrong, then that's bad. But if you have a forecast and it turns out to be wrong, that's not necessarily bad, and may in fact be good. Let's say that you're the captain of a ship and you see an iceberg one mile out.... Continue Reading →
Improving Forecasting Through Ensembles
There's this wonderful article I want to share on building prediction models using ensembles. "Ensembles" in this case simply means the combination of two or more prediction models. I'd personally had great success bringing several (relatively) poorly performing models together into one ensemble model, with prediction accuracy far greater than any of the models individually.... Continue Reading →
The net is set for the fish
The following passage is taken from the beautiful book Master of the Three Ways by Hing Ying Ming (which libraries might classify as "Eastern Philosophy"): The net is set for the fish, But catches the swan in its mesh. The praying mantis covets its prey, While the sparrow approaches from the rear. Within one contrivance hides... Continue Reading →
Tell me what you want to see
Caught this magnificent optical illusion on kottke.org today. I'd say that is definitely this is worth a minute or two of your time. Was in my "data" frame of mind when I watched this, and couldn't help thinking that this is exactly how data works: control the content, control the angle (i.e. perception), and you can make a... Continue Reading →
Expensive Software and Consultants
They took our data, ran it through their software, and they got the answers that eluded us for so long. I was told they were a big consulting company, which meant they probably had great, restrictively expensive software that could do the job. That's why. But I don't buy that argument. Great software needn't be... Continue Reading →
Business Implications of Analysis
"And," she said, "we found that the more rooms a hotel has, the higher the positive rating." I was at NUS (National University of Singapore) in my Master's class -- listening to my peers present their analysis on the relationship between hotel class (e.g. budget, mid-scale and luxury) and the ratings of several key attributes... Continue Reading →
You make it look so easy
I'll start with a quote I read today from the book Getting Ahead (Garfinkle, 2011) about a problem faced by people good at their craft. It made me smile because I this was the first time I'd seen it brought up anywhere and which I thought was one of those things I thought you just... Continue Reading →
Donn, fragments 