I haven't been to the kottke.org page for a while (like in five years) and was serendipitously reintroduced to it through Marginal Revolution on CK Chesterton's essay on success (and its associated BS). Talk about coincidence. Glad to see it's still standing and well worth a read.

Decision Making: The Need for Experimentation Over Models

Jim Manzi, in his book Uncontrolled, makes a very good point about analytical models and their shortcomings, in particular the need for experimentation (i.e. controlled interventions) to figure out what really happens in the real world (emphasis mine): Cost changes often could be predicted reliably through engineering studies. But when it came to predicting how... Continue Reading →

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