If you have a prediction and it turns out to be wrong, then that's bad. But if you have a forecast and it turns out to be wrong, that's not necessarily bad, and may in fact be good. Let's say that you're the captain of a ship and you see an iceberg one mile out.... Continue Reading →
Improving Forecasting Through Ensembles
There's this wonderful article I want to share on building prediction models using ensembles. "Ensembles" in this case simply means the combination of two or more prediction models. I'd personally had great success bringing several (relatively) poorly performing models together into one ensemble model, with prediction accuracy far greater than any of the models individually.... Continue Reading →
The net is set for the fish
The following passage is taken from the beautiful book Master of the Three Ways by Hing Ying Ming (which libraries might classify as "Eastern Philosophy"): The net is set for the fish, But catches the swan in its mesh. The praying mantis covets its prey, While the sparrow approaches from the rear. Within one contrivance hides... Continue Reading →
Donn, fragments 