I just found a new favourite pastime: playing the Vocabulary.com Challenge.
A great example of gamification, it makes learning new words engaging and actually quite fun.
I do wonder if such a similar thing exists for Chinese/Mandarin.
I had KFC (Kentucky Fried Chicken) for breakfast yesterday. Chicken rice porridge and a “breakfast” wrap (that oddly enough didn’t seem to contain any chicken).
It was decent, and I liked it.
So when I was quite excited when I saw that the receipt had a link to an online customer satisfaction survey, for which I would get a free piece of chicken if I completed it. It was a pretty good deal, I thought.
But I couldn’t help but wonder about how useful it was to KFC.
Surely survey responses would be largely over-represented by people who like their food (and service, to a certain degree)? If I hated their food, and/or hated their service, and swore never to go back there again, what good would offering me a free piece of chicken do for me?
These are the people whom you probably most want to hear from, and yet have absolutely no incentive to complete such a survey (and in most likelihood, being normal people like us, they’d vote with their dollars and just not patronise the store again, instead of submitting feedback).
It would, in short, be far from a representative survey.
I just hope that those who are interpreting and on the receiving end of said-interpretation understand the limitations of just such a survey, and discount the very likely amplified, far-too-positive results.
And if the results are lukewarm instead of three-Michelin -stars-worthy? Then oh dear.
“So how long,” he asks, “do you think you’ll take to complete the project?”
“Two weeks,” I say.
Three weeks later, I’m still two weeks away from completion. What happened?
It’s not like this hasn’t happened before. It’s happened many times before.
Rolf Dobelli says it beautifully in his excellent book The Art of Thinking Clearly:
[W]hy are we not natural-born planners? The first reason: wishful thinking. We want to be successful and achieve everything we take on. Second, we focus too much on the project and overlook outside influences. Unexpected events too often scupper our plans.
The second point is particularly pertinent in my line of work. I have a pretty decent idea of how long a project will take, if all goes well and if I could dedicate 100% of my time to the project.
What I tend to forget is that life often gets in the way. There are plenty of interruptions. Other “important”, “even more urgent” projects pop-up; ad hoc requests that are quick to resolve but that just as quickly add up to significant amounts of time; regular routine work that’s not quite factored in, because they are normally quickly executed, but every once in a while require a long, dragged-out bout of firefighting.
Dobelli has a solution for better planning. He suggests
[shifting] your focus from internal things, such as your own project, to external factors, like similar projects. Look at the base rate and consult the past. If other ventures of the same type lasted three years and devoured $5 million, they will probably apply to your project, too — no matter how carefully you plan.
Which is a great case for keeping a log of project and their time to completion (do NOT trust undocumented recollections of project lengths; like childbirth, our brains tend to underestimate the amount of time and pain we go through).
Also, one more thing I would is that you resist the temptation to think that “this time is different”, and that no matter how confident you are, this time is probably not.
Trust the data.
Saw the following via Avinash Kaushik on Google+. Too good not to share, and on so many levels.
It is worth highlighting that the power of the “default option” is a very real one.
Organ donation is a good example. Whether organ donation is an “opt-in” (i.e. the default option is not donating), far fewer people tend to go for it, as compared to when it’s an “opt-out” (i.e. the default option is donating).
I’m a big believer in this effect, and use it often when scheduling meetings, among other things.
For example, when scheduling meetings, I like to give options, but always ensure that one of them is the “default” or “preferred” option, even though there’s no reason for it to be (“We can meet either Thursday 2pm or 5pm, though I would prefer 2pm. “)
It helps expedite things: if the recipient can’t make it at 2pm or 5pm, it’s an easy choice, the recipient just chooses the alternative. If the recipient can make it for both, the recipient just chooses the default (2pm).
Without the default option, if the recipient can make it for both, it’s likely the recipient would wait till the last possible moment before responding, keeping options open in case another meeting crops up.
Like a blog post.
I’ve been thinking all month that “I ought to update my blog”, but “inspiration” didn’t hit and so I just let it slide.
Day after day, thinking about it; not doing anything.
And then I thought, “what if I don’t wait for inspiration? What if I just got out there and wrote?”
Well, I did. And I did.